I. Introduction

Researchers are unsure of when and where the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) originated. What is certain, though, is that HIV/AIDS has become a pandemic disease since its recognition as a major global health crisis in the late-1980s and early-1990s. This disease and others, namely malaria and tuberculosis, represent a severe development crisis in sub-Saharan Africa, the most afflicted region in the world. Highly effective prevention, treatment, and care programs must be developed and administered through substantial foreign aid contributions. During his State of Union address, President George W. Bush proposed the Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, designed to prevent 7 million new AIDS infections, treat 2 million people with life-extending drugs, some of which cost less than a $1 per day, and give care for children orphaned by AIDS. For this, he asked Congress to earmark $15 billion over 5 years. This is a strong step in the right direction, but still more can be done.

More than 29.4 million people are living with HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, including 3.5 million new infections in 2002. Sadly, an estimated 2.4 million Africans died from complications with HIV/AIDS in the past year. National adult HIV prevalence has reached astronomical proportions in four Southern African countries, exceeding 30%: Botswana (38.8%), Zimbabwe (33.7%), Swaziland (33.4%), and Lesotho (31%). The disease has far-reaching socioeconomic consequences. My research project will seek to discover the extent of the economic impacts of HIV/AIDS in the aforementioned sub-Saharan African countries and also South Africa, the most developed country in Africa. It will also seek to evaluate the impact of foreign aid to these countries in prevention, treatment, and care.

II. Research Hypothesis

This research paper will attempt to prove that the incidence of HIV/AIDS in the adult population has a negative impact on the size and productivity of the labor force in Botswana, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Lesotho, and South Africa.

III. Literature Survey

Major studies on this topic include a study by Mead Over for the World Bank titled “The Macroeconomic Impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa” published in 1992, a study published in 1997 by David Bloom and Ajay S. Mahal for the National Bureau of Economic Research titled “Does AIDS Really Affect Economic Growth,” an IMF working paper by Maitland MacFarlan and Silvia Sgherri titled “The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana”, and a Brookings Institution report from 2001 titled “The Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa.” In addition, reports such as the World Health Organization’s “Commission on Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development” will be helpful sources for my research.

These studies are predominately focused towards analyzing the effect of the incidence of HIV/AIDS on GDP growth rate per capita and often rely heavily on economic projections. In addition, they have provided conflicting results of the strictly economic impacts of HIV/AIDS and recommendations for change. Current research on the impact of the incidence of HIV/AIDS on the labor force and productivity has yet to be heavily conducted.

IV. Research Design

This research will apply the economic theory of production to study the effects of HIV/AIDS on the economies of sub-Saharan African countries. Long-run economic growth can be viewed as a function of available labor, capital, and technology. If the size of the labor force or productivity decreases as a result of high incidence of HIV/AIDS, production will fall. In an ideal world, the data necessary to conduct this research would include the size of the labor force, productivity, and the incidence of adult cases of HIV/AIDS. I plan to use statistics on labor force and productivity from the World Health Organization, incidence of adult cases of HIV/AIDS from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), and dummy explanatory variables expressing the presence or lack of a nationalized health care system and the type of economy (agricultural or industrial). The research will conduct a regression study over the time period of 1990-2002 when HIV/AIDS became the global crisis it is today. This design should produce reliable results by empirically testing and statistically documenting the impact of HIV/AIDS on the size of the labor force and productivity, which in turn affect economic growth.

V. References

Armstrong, Jill. 1991. Socioeconomic implications of AIDS in developing countries.

Finance & Development 28, no. 4:14-17.

Bloom, David E. and Ajay S. Mahal. 1997. Does the AIDS epidemic really threaten economic

growth? Journal of Econometrics 77, no. 1: 105-124.

Over, Mead. 1992. The macroeconomic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. Washington,

DC: World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department.

Brookings Institution. 2001. The economic impact of HIV/AIDS in southern Africa.

Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, Office of Social Policy.

Sachs, Jeffrey D. 2002. A new global effort to control malaria. Science 298, no. 5591:

122-124.